Seznam velkoplošných teplotních rekonstrukcí dvou posledních tisíciletí

Tento seznam velkoplošných teplotních rekonstrukcí dvou posledních tisíciletí zahrnuje ty rekonstrukční studie klimatu, které přispěly výrazně k moderní shodě o průběhu teplot za posledních 2000 let.

Instrumentální měření teplot pokrývá v globálním měřítku pouze posledních 150 let. Rekonstrukce teplot ze starších období pochází z klimatických proxy dat. Koncept výzkumu historických klimatických dat z vaver v jezerních usazeninách a z letokruhů vznikl ve 30. letech 20. století.[1] První, kdo přišel s myšlenou zkoumat teploty v minulosti byl Hubert Lamb, jeden z prvních paleoklimatologů, který publikoval výzkum na základě údajů z botaniky, z výzkumu historických dokumentů a meteorologických dat. Podle jeho výzkumů bylo období 1000-1200 teplé a bylo následováno studeným obdobím v letech 1500-1700. Teplé středověké období bylo označeno Středověká teplá perioda, studené období Malá doba ledová[2] Následující kvantitativní rekonstrukce používaly statistické techniky uplatněné na různá proxy data a vytvořily tak velkoplošné rekonstrukce teplot.

Kvantitativní rekonstrukce ukázaly konsistentní závěr, že teploty v minulých 2000 letech byly nižší, než teploty dosažené na konci 20. století. Toto poznání vyjádřila studie MBH99[3] v tzv. hokejkovém grafu. Závěry této práce později potvrdilo více, než 20 dalších studií, používajících různé kombinace proxy dat a statistických metod.[4]

Jednotlivé rekonstrukce

První rekonstrukce

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  • JACOBY, Gordon C., D'Arrigo, Rosanne. Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America. Climatic Change. 1989-02-01, roč. 14, čís. 1, s. 39–59. DOI 10.1007/BF00140174. 
  • BRADLEY, Raymond S.; JONES, Philip D. 'Little Ice Age' summer temperature variations; their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends. The Holocene. December 1993, s. 367–376. Dostupné online. 
  • HUGHES, Malcolm K., Diaz, Henry F. Was there a ?medieval warm period?, and if so, where and when?. Climatic Change. 1994-03-01, roč. 26, čís. 2–3, s. 109–142. DOI 10.1007/BF01092410. 
  • MANN, Michael E., Park, Jeffrey; Bradley, R. S. Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries. Nature. 1995-11-16, roč. 378, čís. 6554, s. 266–270. DOI 10.1038/378266a0. 
  • OVERPECK, J. Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries. Science. 1997-11-14, roč. 278, čís. 5341, s. 1251–1256. DOI 10.1126/science.278.5341.1251. 
  • FISHER, D. A. High resolution reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the last few centuries: using regional average tree ring, ice core and historical annual time series. Paper U32C-7 in Supplement to EOS. Transactions. 1997. (anglicky) 

Citované ve Třetí hodnotící zprávě IPCC a ve zprávě NRC

  • MANN, Michael E., Bradley, Raymond S.; Hughes, Malcolm K. Nature. 1998-04-23, roč. 392, čís. 6678, s. 779–787. DOI 10.1038/33859. 
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  • MANN, Michael E., Bradley, Raymond S.; Hughes, Malcolm K. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters. 1999-03-15, roč. 26, čís. 6, s. 759–762. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/1999GL900070. 
  • BRIFFA, Keith R. Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2000-01-01, roč. 19, čís. 1–5, s. 87–105. DOI 10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00056-6. 
  • CROWLEY, Thomas J., Lowery, Thomas S. How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. 2000-02-01, roč. 29, čís. 1, s. 51–54. DOI 10.1579/0044-7447-29.1.51. 
  • POLLACK, Henry N., Huang, Shaopeng; Shen, Po-Yu. Nature. 2000-02-17, roč. 403, čís. 6771, s. 756–758. DOI 10.1038/35001556. 

Citované ve Čtvrté hodnotící zprávě IPCC

  • JONES, P.D., Briffa, K.R.; Barnett, T.P.; Tett, S.F.B. High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures. The Holocene. 1998-07-01, roč. 8, čís. 4, s. 455–471. DOI 10.1191/095968398667194956. 
  • MANN, Michael E., Bradley, Raymond S.; Hughes, Malcolm K. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters. 1999-03-15, roč. 26, čís. 6, s. 759–762. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/1999GL900070. 
  • BRIFFA, Keith R. Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2000-01-01, roč. 19, čís. 1–5, s. 87–105. DOI 10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00056-6. 
  • CROWLEY, Thomas J., Lowery, Thomas S. How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. 2000-02-01, roč. 29, čís. 1, s. 51–54. DOI 10.1579/0044-7447-29.1.51. 
  • BRIFFA, Keith R., Osborn, Timothy J.; Schweingruber, Fritz H.; Harris, Ian C.; Jones, Philip D.; Shiyatov, Stepan G.; Vaganov, Eugene A. Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2001-02-01, roč. 106, čís. D3, s. 2929. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2000JD900617. 
  • ESPER, J. Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability. Science. 2002-03-22, roč. 295, čís. 5563, s. 2250–2253. DOI 10.1126/science.1066208. 
  • POLLACK, Henry N. Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2004-01-01, roč. 109, čís. D11. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2003JD004163. 
  • MOBERG, Anders, Sonechkin, Dmitry M.; Holmgren, Karin; Datsenko, Nina M.; Karlén, Wibjörn. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature. 2005-02-10, roč. 433, čís. 7026, s. 613–617. DOI 10.1038/nature03265. 
  • OERLEMANS, J. Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records. Science. 2005-04-29, roč. 308, čís. 5722, s. 675–677. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1126/science.1107046. 
  • RUTHERFORD, S., Mann, M. E.; Osborn, T. J.; Briffa, K. R.; Jones, P D.; Bradley, R. S.; Hughes, M. K. Proxy-Based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain. Journal of Climate. 2005-07-01, roč. 18, čís. 13, s. 2308–2329. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1175/JCLI3351.1. 
  • D'ARRIGO, Rosanne, Wilson, Rob; Jacoby, Gordon. On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2006-01-01, roč. 111, čís. D3. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2005JD006352. 
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Citované v Páté hodnotící zprávě IPCC

  • BRIFFA, Keith R., Osborn, Timothy J.; Schweingruber, Fritz H.; Harris, Ian C.; Jones, Philip D.; Shiyatov, Stepan G.; Vaganov, Eugene A. Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2001-02-01, roč. 106, čís. D3, s. 2929. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2000JD900617. 
  • CHRISTIANSEN, Bo, Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier. Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method that Preserves Low-Frequency Variability. Journal of Climate. 2011-12-01, roč. 24, čís. 23, s. 6013–6034. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1175/2011JCLI4145.1.  (odpověď na komentáře A. Moberga)
  • D'ARRIGO, Rosanne, Wilson, Rob; Jacoby, Gordon. On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2006-01-01, roč. 111, čís. D3. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2005JD006352. 
  • FRANK, David, Esper, Jan; Cook, Edward R. Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large-scale temperature reconstruction. Geophysical Research Letters. 2007-08-28, roč. 34, čís. 16. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2007GL030571. 
  • HEGERL, Gabriele C., Crowley, Thomas J.; Hyde, William T.; Frame, David J. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature. 2006-04-20, roč. 440, čís. 7087, s. 1029–1032. DOI 10.1038/nature04679. 
  • JUCKES, M. N., Allen, M. R.; Briffa, K. R.; Esper, J.; Hegerl, G. C.; Moberg, A.; Osborn, T. J.; Weber, S. L. Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation. Climate of the Past. 2007-10-05, roč. 3, čís. 4, s. 591–609. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.5194/cp-3-591-2007. 
  • LECLERCQ, Paul Willem, Oerlemans, Johannes. Global and hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations. Climate Dynamics. 2011-07-29, roč. 38, čís. 5–6, s. 1065–1079. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1145-7. 
  • LJUNGQVIST, FREDRIK CHARPENTIER. A NEW RECONSTRUCTION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DURING THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography. 2010-09-06, roč. 92, čís. 3, s. 339–351. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x. 
  • LOEHLE, Craig, McCulloch, J. Huston. Correction to: A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies. Energy & Environment. 2008-01-01, roč. 19, čís. 1, s. 93–100. DOI 10.1260/095830508783563109. 
  • MANN, Michael E. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters. 2003-01-01, roč. 30, čís. 15. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2003GL017814. 
  • MANN, Michael E., Zhihua Zhang, Scott Rutherford, Raymond S. Bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes, Drew Shindell, Caspar Ammann, Greg Faluvegi, Fenbiao Ni. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science. 2009, s. 1256–1260. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. (anglicky) 
  • MOBERG, Anders, Dmitry M. Sonechkin, Karin Holmgren, Nina M. Datsenko, Wibjörn Karlén. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution proxy data. Nature. 2005, s. 613–617. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. (anglicky) 
  • POLLACK, Henry N. Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2004-01-01, roč. 109, čís. D11. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1029/2003JD004163. 
  • SHI, Feng, Bao Yang, Aurélien Mairesse, Lucien von Gunten, Jianping Li, Achim Bräuning, Fengmei Yang, Xia Xiao. Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies. Clim Res. 2013, s. 231–244. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. (anglicky) 

Ostatní rekonstrukce

  • SMITH, Claire L., Baker, Andy; Fairchild, Ian J.; Frisia, Silvia; Borsato, Andrea. Reconstructing hemispheric-scale climates from multiple stalagmite records. International Journal of Climatology. 2006-08-01, roč. 26, čís. 10, s. 1417–1424. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1002/joc.1329. , Figure 1
  • HUANG, S. P., Pollack, H. N.; Shen, P.-Y. A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record. Geophysical Research Letters. 2008-07-04, roč. 35, čís. 13. Dostupné v archivu pořízeném dne 2012-02-27. DOI 10.1029/2008GL034187.  Archivováno 27. 2. 2012 na Wayback Machine.
  • LEE, Terry C. K., Zwiers, Francis W.; Tsao, Min. Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods. Climate Dynamics. 2007-12-20, roč. 31, čís. 2–3, s. 263–281. DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0351-9. 
  • KAUFMAN, D. S., Schneider, D. P.; McKay, N. P.; Ammann, C. M.; Bradley, R. S.; Briffa, K. R.; Miller, G. H.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Vinther, B. M.; Abbott, M.; Axford, Y.; Bird, B.; Birks, H. J. B.; Bjune, A. E.; Briner, J.; Cook, T.; Chipman, M.; Francus, P.; Gajewski, K.; Geirsdottir, A.; Hu, F. S.; Kutchko, B.; Lamoureux, S.; Loso, M.; MacDonald, G.; Peros, M.; Porinchu, D.; Schiff, C.; Seppa, H.; Thomas, E. Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. Science. 2009-09-03, roč. 325, čís. 5945, s. 1236–1239. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1126/science.1173983. 
  • TINGLEY, Martin P., Huybers, Peter. A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part I: Development and Applications to Paleoclimate Reconstruction Problems. Journal of Climate. 2010-05-01, roč. 23, čís. 10, s. 2759–2781. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1175/2009JCLI3015.1. 
  • LJUNGQVIST, F. C., Krusic, P. J.; Brattström, G.; Sundqvist, H. S. Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries. Climate of the Past. 2012-02-03, roč. 8, čís. 1, s. 227–249. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.5194/cp-8-227-2012. 
  • CHRISTIANSEN, B., Ljungqvist, F. C. The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability. Climate of the Past. 2012-04-18, roč. 8, čís. 2, s. 765–786. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.5194/cp-8-765-2012. Bibcode 2012CliPa...8..765C. 
  • MARCOTT, S. A., Shakun, J. D.; Clark, P. U.; Mix, A. C. A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science. 2013-03-07, roč. 339, čís. 6124, s. 1198–1201. DOI 10.1126/science.1228026. 
  • AHMED, Moinuddin, et al. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience. 2013-04-21, roč. 6, čís. 5, s. 339–346. DOI 10.1038/ngeo1797. 

Další literatura

1990

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1996

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1998

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1999

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2000

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2001

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2004

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2006

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2007

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2009

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  • MANN, M. E., Zhang, Z.; Rutherford, S.; Bradley, R. S.; Hughes, M. K.; Shindell, D.; Ammann, C.; Faluvegi, G.; Ni, F. Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science. 2009-11-26, roč. 326, čís. 5957, s. 1256–1260. Dostupné online [cit. 2014-02-09]. DOI 10.1126/science.1177303. 

2010

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2011

  • MANN, Michael E. The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. [s.l.]: Columbia University Press, 2012-03-06. Dostupné online. ISBN 978-0-231-15254-9. 

2013

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Reference

V tomto článku byl použit překlad textu z článku List of large-scale temperature reconstructions of the last 2,000 years na anglické Wikipedii.

  1. ↑ WEART, Spencer R. The Discovery of Global Warming. [s.l.]: [s.n.], February 2013. Dostupné online. Kapitola Changing Sun, Changing Climate. (anglicky) 
  2. ↑ LAMB, H.H. The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 1965-01-01, roč. 1, s. 13–37. DOI 10.1016/0031-0182(65)90004-0. 
  3. ↑ MANN, Michael E., Bradley, Raymond S.; Hughes, Malcolm K. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters. 1999-03-15, roč. 26, čís. 6, s. 759–762. DOI 10.1029/1999GL900070. 
  4. ↑ FRANK, David, Esper, Jan; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilson, Rob. A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2010-07-01, roč. 1, čís. 4, s. 507–516. DOI 10.1002/wcc.53.